Changing Party Systems of India: Rise and Decline of the Congress Party

Electoral defeats are routine outcomes for political parties, however, some political parties find it extremely hard to revive after successive setbacks. This talk gives primacy to endogenous factors over exogenous changes that hinders party adaptation to emerging challenges. It examines the trajectory of the Indian National Congress (INC) post-1978 and analyses the factors that have contributed to its decline. It revisits the history of the Congress and questions whether identity assertion, leadership issues, organizational atrophy, and the shrinking ideological space for the Congress party is sufficient to explain its decline. The talk draws on multiple data points to provide evidence - electoral returns to map the geographical shrinking of the party, party documents including manifestos to understand ideological positioning, opinion polls to  analyse social base, fieldwork and expert surveys to measure organisational strength of the  party, candidate affidavits to understand recruitment patterns, among others. The talk aims to contribute to the literature on party adaptation and decline in general, and India's party politics in particular.