West Asia at War: Implications for India and the Indian Ocean Region

At a time when global dynamics and fault lines are rapidly changing, West Asia has once again emerged as the epicentre of geopolitical and geo-economic tension.

This is not a distant conflict. Its ripple effects are being felt since the beginning of the US-Israel war with Iran on February 28, 2026—through rising energy costs, fragile supply chains, shifting alliances and an increasingly militarised maritime landscape.

For India, the implications are both immediate and long-term, with effects far beyond the duration of the conflict. And these implications are structural: involving energy security, economic stability, regional diplomacy, and India’s evolving role as a potential stabilising force.

In order to cut through the noise to examine these questions with clarity, depth, and real-world insight, the Stepwell Centre for Asian Futures at Ahmedabad University presented the first edition of The Briefing, titled ‘West Asia at War: Implications for India and the Indian Ocean Region.’

The Briefing was anchored by Professor Niraj Athavle, Professor of Practice of Management at the university’s Amrut Mody School of Management​​​​​​, Ahmedabad University, and Professor Sudeep Chakravarti​​​​​​, Executive Director, Stepwell Centre for Asian Futures and Professor of Practice, School of Arts and Sciences​​​​​​.

Besides a detailed presentation on strategic mapping and outcomes in West Asia, the Gulf of Hormuz and other regional chokepoints, and the Indian Ocean Region, several points emerged during the full-house discussion. Among these:

• The fuel price hike and consequent dislocation will lead to a change in the energy map of India, with a likely short-term push for coal; a sharp and escalated push for ensuring and using alternative energy; an immediate and ongoing search for alternative petroleum and gas sources away from West Asia in Southeast Asia, Africa, Central and South America.
• Immediate and longer-term multi-country negotiations to secure Russian crude and other sources vulnerable to sanctions.
• Expansion of India’s hydrocarbon resources; activation of new oil and gas fields, both onshore and offshore; and a push to initiate bids of mapped oil and gas fields.
• Expansion of India’s maritime resources, and the consequent parallel expansion of India’s naval presence and maritime security in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the India Ocean Rim.
• A momentum towards using non-US Dollar platforms for trade and payments for oil and gas and other transactions.

Besides discussing structural changes, The Briefing took on board immediate concerns such as a state of stagflation, a region-wide shortage of fertilisers during the ongoing and imminent the sowing season; knock-on regional effects of a shrinking of the ‘remittance economies’ dependent on income in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in West Asia, and the overall slowing of economic growth across the region—which has political and security implications for India.

A dynamic microsite tailored for this briefing was also unveiled during the discussion. The micro-site is open source and for use by students, researchers and journalists alike. These aggregated datasets, which are shared as an open resource, were created by Sahasrik Ragani, a fourth-year student of Social and Political Sciences at Ahmedabad University.

The Stepwell Centre of Asian Futures will shortly announce the next edition of The Briefing, which will soon be also have a podcast and form a part of the Centre’s soon to be launched newsletter.

The Briefing on ‘West Asia at War: Implications for India and the Indian Ocean Region’ was jointly presented by the Stepwell Centre of Asian Futures and ‘The Learning Community’ at Ahmedabad University.

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