Stepwell Centre for Asian Futures Policy Paper

Recognition and Remedy

Policy Recommendations to Address the Mounting Climate Refugee Crisis in South Asia

Esha Tomar

Fellow
Stepwell Centre for Asian Futures
Ahmedabad University

Author

Published on: July 1, 2026

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Summary

Problem: Climate migration is no longer hypothetical
South Asia is acutely vulnerable to climate-induced displacement. In 2024 alone, over 9 million climate-related internal displacements were recorded across the region, with India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka emerging as major hotspots¹. Projections suggest that climate-related displacement will increase sharply by 2050: by then sea-level rise alone could displace up to 15 million people in Bangladesh² and millions more across India’s coastal and riverine regions, while Himalayan hazards in Nepal and Pakistan, and the existential threat faced by low-lying states such as the Maldives will intensify cross-border mobility pressures. Despite these realities, South Asia lacks a coordinated regional legal or policy framework to manage climate-induced displacement and migration. Existing international refugee law does not recognise “climate refugees,” and regional mechanisms remain fragmented and reactive.

Stakes: Intensifying regional destabilisation
Unmanaged climate mobility poses significant humanitarian, social, economic, and security risks for South Asian states. Sudden, vast cross-border movements may strain border management systems, urban and rural infrastructure, and labour markets, while also increasing the likelihood of humanitarian crises and political tensions between various neighbouring states. Conversely, coordinated preparedness can lower response costs, stabilise border regions, and enable access to climate finance and technical assistance. Regional cooperation on climate mobility is therefore a matter of strategic self-interest. Climate migration is a governance challenge, not merely a humanitarian emergency.

Proposal (‘The Ask’): A Regional Climate Mobility and Resilience Commission
This paper proposes the establishment of a Regional Climate Mobility and Resilience Commission, anchored within a BIMSTEC-centred framework that also facilitates broader South Asian participation. The Commission (RCMRC) would function as a soft-law, cooperative platform to facilitate data sharing, coordinated disaster response, and the gradual harmonisation of various domestic legal and policy approaches to climate-induced displacement. Over time, it would support the development of model national laws, regional protocols for cross-border disaster displacement, and pooled financing mechanisms.

Implementation

Adopt a regional soft-law declaration on climate mobility cooperation.
Establish a Regional Climate Mobility and Resilience Commission with representation from member states, technical agencies, and disaster management authorities.
Create a regional data and early-warning platform on climate displacement.
Develop model national legislation and standard operating procedures for cross-border disaster displacement.
Mobilise pooled climate finance and coordinated engagement with international funding mechanisms.

Incentives for State Participation

Access to pooled financial and technical resources for disaster preparedness and response.
Manage migration flows.
Shared data and best practices on adaptation and relocation.
Strengthen bargaining power in global climate finance negotiations.
Reduce long-term humanitarian and security costs associated with unmanaged displacement.

Potential Risks

Political resistance to regional frameworks.
Security concerns and data-sharing sensitivities.
Uneven burden-sharing.

Mitigation

Phased, soft-law approach.
Voluntary participation.
Strong data-protection protocols.
Flexible implementation timelines tailored to national capacities.

Metrics for Success

Reduction in response time to climate-displacement events.
Establishment of national focal points/ response hubs, and legal frameworks.
Volume of pooled or mobilised climate finance.
Expansion of early-warning and preparedness coverage across vulnerable regions.
Comprehensive definition and increased accuracy in assessing the number of climate refugees.

Climate migration should be treated as a challenge of governance as much as a humanitarian emergency. By prioritising preparedness, information- and burden-sharing, and coordination, a regional mechanism on climate mobility would enable South Asian states to manage inevitable displacement pressures in a cooperative manner.

¹^{IDMC (2025) Global Report on Internal Displacement 2025, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. p. 67 https://doi.org/10.55363/IDMC.XTGW2833}
²^{Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019 projections quoted in Tim Naish et al, “Future Sea-level Rise Is Certain …” WMO Bulletin Vol. 74 (2) - 2025, World Meteorological Organization, 15 October 2025 https://wmo.int/media/magazine-article/future-sea-level-rise-certain-amount-and-speed-are-uncertain}

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[This Policy Paper can be used for dissemination and research, with attribution.]